In the past month or so, I made a fairly intensive system of determining All Elite Wrestling’s Power Rankings – not unlike baseball’s Wins About Replacement. It tracks both the performers’ wins and losses, as well as the strength of their opponents, as well as their contribution to the finish. For instance, in the Fatal Fourway between Adam Page, Jimmy Havoc, MJF, and Jungle Boy, Jimmy Havoc took the pin. So him losing that match matters more than Jungle Boy or MJF not winning. There’s a lot more to my method than this, but that gives the gist.
Unrelated to this, over the next two weeks AEW is doing a sub-ppv event, their second year of Fyter Fest. This gives me an opportunity to test out the power rankings, and see how it compares to my expectations, as well as what actually happens.
As always – card is subject to change. It’s entirely possible everyone in this might catch covid and it’ll just be two weeks of Britt Baker in her cage. Which would still be solid.
- MJF and Wardlow (0) vs Luchasaurus and Jungle Boy (0.65) in a Tag Team Match.
So, surprisingly neither MJF nor Wardlow has been in a 2 person tag team match yet. MJF has been in three trios matches, and is undefeated with a power ranking of 2.31. By comparison, Luchasaurus has a Tag Team rating of 2.14, and Jungle Boy is -2.19.
Their overall scores are MJF (11.02), Wardlow (3.14), Jungle Boy (1.96), and Luchasaurus (1.64). By the numbers, MJF and Wardlow are the clear favorites. If Jungle Boy and Luchasaurus do manage to win, it’s likely going to be Lucha pinning Wardlow. This matches up with my expectations – MJF isn’t going to lose directly till he’s in a title match, and maybe not even then.
- Private Party (-1.08) vs Proud and Powerful (0.63) in a Tag Team Match.
Both of these teams win about half their matches. Which is a fancy way of saying there’s no favorite.
The individual participants’ rankings are Isiah Kassidy (-4.52), Marq Quen (-3.53), Santana (0.9), and Ortiz (-2.08). This spells more of a picture – Kassidy is definitely the weaker of the two members of Private Party, and Santana is the stronger of Proud and Powerful. So let’s say Santana pins Kassidy.
- Hikaru Shida (c) (15.81) vs Penelope Ford (0.61) for the AEW Women’s World Championship
Wow. So, that’s their singles scores. Champions naturally have higher scores, because championship matches are more heavily weighted than regular ones. Now, Penelope Ford is actually digging her way out of a hole. Her singles ranking had bottomed out at -1.45, and this is the highest it’s ever been. Who knows, maybe she’ll end up winning?
She won’t. Hikaru Shida for the win.
- Cody Rhodes (c) (16.36) vs Jake Hager (1.16)
Another case of one side being much more dominant than the other. A couple points – this is only their Singles Ranking. Overall its Cody (15.67) and Hager (1.09)….that doesn’t really help Hager’s case.
So, as terrifying as Jake Hager is, he’s also in a losing streak. He hasn’t had a singles match since he lost to Moxley at Dynamite 28, and he’s since been on the losing side of the Stadium Stampede and a trios match where the highly talented Orange Cassidy got the win.
The numbers say flatout that Cody is going to win. For my money….Jake either needs to win to have any credibility as a badass, or needs to lose via nefarious means. Given that Cody is slowly turning heel, this could be a chance for some shenanigans. It’s not a real PPV, and it’s a secondary championship, so it wouldn’t be too cheap.
- Omega and Page (c) (19.27) vs Best Friends (7.95).
This is actually the closest contest between champion and challenger. Best Friends haven’t lost a match since March, and they’ve been pretty damn active in the Covid world. By comparison Omega and Page have only had like three matches since then. Their ranking is huge because they’ve been fighting champions, and that shouldn’t be ignored. But I think their time is up. And I really want the Best Friends to win.
Just for completionism, here’s their overall scores. Kenny Omega (20.29), Adam Page (16.68), Chuck Taylor (0.41), and Trent Beretta (7.4). Wow, that’s a pretty big jump between Chuck and Trent. It looks like Chuck kept taking the L for the team whenever there was a tag match they didn’t win. As a side note – Omega’s higher score is because he’s also defended his AAA Mega Championship a couple times in AEW.